Godly Governance

# Godly Governance
## Examining Support for Religious Governance in Arab Muslim Majority Countries
### Fabio Votta <a href="http://github.com/favstats">  favstats</a> <a href="http://www.favstats.eu/">  favstats.eu</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/FabioFavusMaxim">   @FabioFavusMaxim</a> <a href="mailto:fabio.votta@gmail.com">  fabio.votta@gmail.com</a>
### 2018-29-06 Slides available at <a href='https://godly-governance.netlify.com'>godly-governance.netlify.com</a>

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Research Question:

> What role does religiosity play in support for religious governance?

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## Starting Point

+ A commonly proposed explanation for the support for religious governance is that devout Muslims simply
support it out of their religious convictions

+ This proposed relationship falls in danger to become tautological and essentialist in nature, leading to explanations that Muslims support religious governance *because they are Muslims*

Tessler describes the problematic nature of such arguments as this

> "mistakenly assume[s] that there are clear and uncontested definitions of what constitute [...] 'Muslim' orientations" and "[...] ignores the significant differences that exist between Arab and Muslim countries, as well as the equally important individual-level variation that exists within countries [...] associated with age, education, class, gender, ethnicity, and residence."

Tessler, 2015, pp. 54-55

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## Hypotheses

**Secularization Theory** *(Norris & Inglehart, 2011)*

> *H1a:* Increasing individual material resources marginalize support for religious governance.

> *H1b:* Increasing intellectual resources marginalize support for religious governance.

**Parochialism**

> *H2:* Parochial viewpoints increase support for religious governance.

**Patriarchal Values**

> *H3:* Patriarchal Values increase support for religious governance.

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## Hypotheses

**The Role of Religiosity**

> *H4a:* Religiosity increases support for religious governance.

> *H4b:* Liberal interpretations of Islam decrease the support for religious governance.

*Interactions*

> *H4c:* If an individual endorses patriarchal values, religiosity has a *stronger effect* on
the support for religious governance

> *H4d:* If an individual endorses liberal interpretations of Islam, religiosity has a
*diminished or even reversed effect* on the support for religious governance.

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## Data & Methodology

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## Data & Methodology

+ Merging of the following datasets: 
  + Arabbarometer Survey Round 3 (data from 2014-2015)  
  + Arabbarometer Survey Round 4 (data from 2015-2016)  
  
+ In total 13.495 individual cases in 12 Arab countries
  + weighted with provided weight

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### Dependent Variable - *Support for Islamism*

*To what extent [do] you think these systems would be appropriate for your country?*

+ Religious leaders (imams, preachers, priests) should have influence over government decisions

+ Your country is better off if religious people hold public positions in the state

+ A system governed by Islamic law without elections or political parties

+ A parliamentary system (based on Islamic law) in which only Islamist parties compete in parliamentary elections

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### Average Support by Country

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#### Independent Variables

*Secularization Theory*

+ Employment (0/1)
+ Financial Security
+ Education 
    
--
    
*Parochialism*

+ Do you think that the increase in global connectivity is a good or a bad thing for the society?
      
--
      
*Religiosity*

+ Personal Piety
 + Do you pray daily?
 + Do you listen to or read the Quran? 
 
--
 
*Patriarchal Values*
 
+ A married woman can work outside the home. 
+ In general, men are better at political leadership than women. 
+ University education for males is more important than university education for females.
 
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#### Independent Variables

*Liberal Islam*

> The opinions of Islamic jurists and religious scholars differ and I want to ask to what extent you
agree or disagree with some of these issues?

+ Democracy is a system that contradicts the teachings of Islam.
+ Gender-mixed education should be allowed in universities. 
+ Women should wear modest clothes without needing to wear hijab.

*Control Variables*

+ Sex (Male/Female)
+ Age
+ Year 2012 (0/1)
+ Year 2013 (0/1)
+ Year 2014 (0/1)

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## Analysis & Results

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## Analysis

+ Individuals are nested into countries, so that application of *multilevel models* is suitable

+ ICC: 14.66% of the variance of Islamism is bound on the country-level

+ Sequential approach 
    + *Models 1-5* continually add one variable to the model
    + *Model 6* shows the main model with all variables
    + *Model 7-8* show estimated interaction effects
    
+ No severe violations of residual assumptions can be found

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## Results - Main Effects

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## Results - Interaction Effects I

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## Results - Interaction Effects II

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## Conclusions & Future Research

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## Conclusions & Future Research

+ Financial Security shows no significant effect, whereas increased education and unemployment do

+ Parochialism and Patriarchal values both seem to increase the support for religious governance

+ Religion does matter and it matters *a lot*
    + However: Liberal interpretations of Islam decrease the support for religious governance
    + The moderating effects are *strongest* for the most religious individuals

--
    
+ Further studies in the field should account for the very diverse interpretations and multidimensionality of religion and religiosity in that context.

+ Much variation has been found between countries
    + Future research should consider case-studies of individual countries

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## Thank You!

Full Paper: <a href='http://www.academia.edu/36488238/Godly_Governance_A_Cross-National_Examination_of_Religious_Politics_in_Arab_Muslim-Majority_Countries'>Godly Governance</a>

Slides: <a href='https://godly-governance.netlify.com'>godly-governance.netlify.com </a>

Code and Data on <a href='https://github.com/favstats/GodlyGovernance'>GitHub</a>

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## References

*Norris, P., & Inglehart, R. (2011). Sacred and secular: Religion and politics worldwide. Cambridge University Press.*

*Tessler, M. (2015). Islam and Politics in the Middle East: Explaining the Views of Ordinary Citizens. Indiana University Press.*

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## Appendix

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