Starting Point

• A commonly proposed explanation for the support for religious governance is that devout Muslims simply support it out of their religious convictions

Starting Point

• A commonly proposed explanation for the support for religious governance is that devout Muslims simply support it out of their religious convictions

• This proposed relationship falls in danger to become tautological and essentialist in nature, leading to explanations that Muslims support religious governance because they are Muslims

Starting Point

• A commonly proposed explanation for the support for religious governance is that devout Muslims simply support it out of their religious convictions

• This proposed relationship falls in danger to become tautological and essentialist in nature, leading to explanations that Muslims support religious governance because they are Muslims

Tessler describes the problematic nature of such arguments as this

"mistakenly assume[s] that there are clear and uncontested definitions of what constitute [...] 'Muslim' orientations" and "[...] ignores the significant differences that exist between Arab and Muslim countries, as well as the equally important individual-level variation that exists within countries [...] associated with age, education, class, gender, ethnicity, and residence."

Hypotheses

Secularization Theory (Norris & Inglehart, 2011)

H1a: Increasing individual material resources marginalize support for religious governance.

H1b: Increasing intellectual resources marginalize support for religious governance.

Hypotheses

Secularization Theory (Norris & Inglehart, 2011)

H1a: Increasing individual material resources marginalize support for religious governance.

H1b: Increasing intellectual resources marginalize support for religious governance.

Parochialism

H2: Parochial viewpoints increase support for religious governance.

Hypotheses

Secularization Theory (Norris & Inglehart, 2011)

H1a: Increasing individual material resources marginalize support for religious governance.

H1b: Increasing intellectual resources marginalize support for religious governance.

Parochialism

H2: Parochial viewpoints increase support for religious governance.

Patriarchal Values

H3: Patriarchal Values increase support for religious governance.

Hypotheses

The Role of Religiosity

H4a: Religiosity increases support for religious governance.

H4b: Liberal interpretations of Islam decrease the support for religious governance.

Hypotheses

The Role of Religiosity

H4a: Religiosity increases support for religious governance.

H4b: Liberal interpretations of Islam decrease the support for religious governance.

Interactions

H4c: If an individual endorses patriarchal values, religiosity has a stronger effect on the support for religious governance

Hypotheses

The Role of Religiosity

H4a: Religiosity increases support for religious governance.

H4b: Liberal interpretations of Islam decrease the support for religious governance.

Interactions

H4c: If an individual endorses patriarchal values, religiosity has a stronger effect on the support for religious governance

H4d: If an individual endorses liberal interpretations of Islam, religiosity has a diminished or even reversed effect on the support for religious governance.

Data & Methodology

• Merging of the following datasets:

  • Arabbarometer Survey Round 3 (data from 2014-2015)
  • Arabbarometer Survey Round 4 (data from 2015-2016)

• In total 13.495 individual cases in 12 Arab countries

  • weighted with provided weight

Dependent Variable - Support for Islamism

Dependent Variable - Support for Islamism

Average Support by Country

Independent Variables

Secularization Theory

• Employment (0/1)
• Financial Security
• Education

Independent Variables

Secularization Theory

• Employment (0/1)
• Financial Security
• Education

Parochialism

• Do you think that the increase in global connectivity is a good or a bad thing for the society?

Independent Variables

Secularization Theory

• Employment (0/1)
• Financial Security
• Education

Parochialism

• Do you think that the increase in global connectivity is a good or a bad thing for the society?

Religiosity

• Personal Piety
  • Do you pray daily?
  • Do you listen to or read the Quran?

Independent Variables

Secularization Theory

• Employment (0/1)
• Financial Security
• Education

Parochialism

• Do you think that the increase in global connectivity is a good or a bad thing for the society?

Religiosity

• Personal Piety
  • Do you pray daily?
  • Do you listen to or read the Quran?

Patriarchal Values

• A married woman can work outside the home.
• In general, men are better at political leadership than women.
• University education for males is more important than university education for females.

Independent Variables

Liberal Islam

The opinions of Islamic jurists and religious scholars differ and I want to ask to what extent you agree or disagree with some of these issues?

• Democracy is a system that contradicts the teachings of Islam.
• Gender-mixed education should be allowed in universities.
• Women should wear modest clothes without needing to wear hijab.

Independent Variables

Liberal Islam

The opinions of Islamic jurists and religious scholars differ and I want to ask to what extent you agree or disagree with some of these issues?

• Democracy is a system that contradicts the teachings of Islam.
• Gender-mixed education should be allowed in universities.
• Women should wear modest clothes without needing to wear hijab.

Control Variables

• Sex (Male/Female)
• Age
• Year 2012 (0/1)
• Year 2013 (0/1)
• Year 2014 (0/1)

Analysis

• Individuals are nested into countries, so that application of multilevel models is suitable

• ICC: 14.66% of the variance of Islamism is bound on the country-level

• Sequential approach

  • Models 1-5 continually add one variable to the model
  • Model 6 shows the main model with all variables
  • Model 7-8 show estimated interaction effects

• No severe violations of residual assumptions can be found

Results - Main Effects

Results - Interaction Effects I

Results - Interaction Effects II

Conclusions & Future Research

• Financial Security shows no significant effect, whereas increased education and unemployment do

Conclusions & Future Research

• Financial Security shows no significant effect, whereas increased education and unemployment do

• Parochialism and Patriarchal values both seem to increase the support for religious governance

Conclusions & Future Research

• Financial Security shows no significant effect, whereas increased education and unemployment do

• Parochialism and Patriarchal values both seem to increase the support for religious governance

• Religion does matter and it matters a lot

  • However: Liberal interpretations of Islam decrease the support for religious governance
  • The moderating effects are strongest for the most religious individuals

Conclusions & Future Research

• Financial Security shows no significant effect, whereas increased education and unemployment do

• Parochialism and Patriarchal values both seem to increase the support for religious governance

• Religion does matter and it matters a lot

  • However: Liberal interpretations of Islam decrease the support for religious governance
  • The moderating effects are strongest for the most religious individuals

• Further studies in the field should account for the very diverse interpretations and multidimensionality of religion and religiosity in that context.

Conclusions & Future Research

• Financial Security shows no significant effect, whereas increased education and unemployment do

• Parochialism and Patriarchal values both seem to increase the support for religious governance

• Religion does matter and it matters a lot

  • However: Liberal interpretations of Islam decrease the support for religious governance
  • The moderating effects are strongest for the most religious individuals

• Further studies in the field should account for the very diverse interpretations and multidimensionality of religion and religiosity in that context.

• Much variation has been found between countries

  • Future research should consider case-studies of individual countries

References

Norris, P., & Inglehart, R. (2011). Sacred and secular: Religion and politics worldwide. Cambridge University Press.

Tessler, M. (2015). Islam and Politics in the Middle East: Explaining the Views of Ordinary Citizens. Indiana University Press.